Did the vaccines or natural herd immunity end the COVID-19 pandemic?

Remember when the political heath “authorities” (NIH, CDC, WHO) claimed that the creation and universal administration of a new vaccine was required to end the COVID-19 pandemic, and that, until then, universal masking and a worldwide lockdown of the young and healthy population was necessary to avoid mass death?

Remember when the epidemiologists who opposed the lockdowns and proposed allowing COVID-19 to spread among the young and healthy population to establish herd immunity, and thereby end the pandemic as quickly as possible and with the fewest causalities, were said to be spreaders of “disinformation” and advocates of mass murder?

It’s now four years later. What facts have come to pass since then, and what inferences can be reasonably drawn from them?

Which of these two groups was correct?

New York City was widely regarded as the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Below is a chart of the number of cases of COVID-19 in New York City over the last four years, juxtaposed with a chart of the vaccine rollout, both taken from the New York City Department of Health website.

These are the facts:

In New York City there were spikes in cases that corresponded to each of the COVID-19 variants. Each spike rose and fell naturally within several weeks. Not only was there no correlation between the rise and fall of any of the spikes with the vaccine rollout, but there was a negative correlation: the greatest spike, by several orders of magnitude (the Omicron variant), occurred immediately following the year-long rollout of the vaccine. And, after the great mass of people became infected with Omicron, the COVID-19 pandemic ended.

So the vaccine does not explain the rise and fall of any of the variants or the end of the pandemic. 

What, then, does? 

Below is a chart published by epidemiologist Dr. Knut Wittkowski in March 2020. It shows how, according to the theory of herd immunity, once the rise of infections of a new virus reaches a certain threshold enough people develop natural immunity that the cases must necessarily start to fall. One may notice that the orange line, representing infections, matches the shape of the lines of the rise and fall of the cases of each of the variants shown in the actual data in the first chart above.

This is the causal explanation of the rise and fall of the initial variant, the rise and fall of subsequent variants, and the demise of the pandemic when it finally occurred. The facts show that the COVID-19 pandemic ended when the virus finally mutated into its most infectious (and innocuous) variant, and most of the population became infected and developed herd immunity.

The facts show that the vaccines, when they weren’t harming the health of those who took them, did nothing to slow, much less stop, the spread of COVID-19, nor did they end the pandemic.

And lockdowns and masking, to whatever extent they may have acted to slow the spread of COVID-19, also acted to delay the end of the pandemic while causing massive suffering and destruction along the way.

The philosophic, constitutional, and practical arguments for and against gun ownership: recommended reading

A perennial topic in the popular press is whether or not individuals should be permitted to own guns. Below are the philosophic, constitutional, and practical arguments for and against gun ownership, along with the facts that support these arguments.

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Public masking as a symbol of obedience: a philosophic analysis of Peter J. Pitts’ editorial “Please, New Yorkers, just let it slide! We’re masking ourselves into fits”

Here is a link to the full editorial, Please, New Yorkers, just let it slide! We’re masking ourselves into fits, published in the New York Post on March 8, 2022. Below are quotes from the editorial, followed by my analysis. Embedded links within the quotes are retained from the original.

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Daily COVID-19 deaths in NYC hit 0. Want to celebrate? Make sure it’s without life, music, dance…

Ten days ago, New York City’s Department of Health website began displaying an empty space for the number of daily deaths from COVID-19 on August 27th, presumably indicating that for the first time since the start of the pandemic daily deaths have begun measuring at zero.

Source: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page (Screenshot taken 9/10/20, callouts added by the author; that the empty space present for the last 10 days indicates 0 is the author’s presumption.)
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Has New York City achieved herd immunity?

There is very good news regarding the worry of catching COVID-19 in NYC. Deaths are down from nearly 600-a-day in April to 2-a-day as of August 18 (and likely zero by now). Most people I know attribute this to a combination of the lockdown and the use of masks and social distancing. I attribute it to NYC having achieved herd immunity. Below is the evidence that supports my belief.

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My testimony at the 2020 NYS Senate Manhattan State Budget Forum

Here’s the 2-minute oral testimony I gave at the 2020 NYS Senate Manhattan State Budget Forum to Senators Robert Jackson, Liz Krueger, Brian Benjamin, Brad Hoylman, Brian Kavanagh, and Jose Serrano regarding the various bills they are currently supporting that would reclassify many or all current independent contractors as employers or employees. (All were present except for Senator Jackson, who left before I spoke.)

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